Team Ratings and Game Forecasts, Scored in Public
Pascal Institute publishes a Pascal Rating for every team in MLB, the NFL, college football, the NBA, and the NHL. For the NFL and college football we also turn the ratings into a win probability for each game, record that forecast before kickoff, and score it after the game ends, so anyone can check whether the ratings are accurate and whether their probabilities are calibrated. Game forecasts for other sports will follow the same rules when we publish them.
Every day
Today’s Pick of the Day
Make one pick per sport before the window closes and keep your streak going. Every pick is recorded at the market price and scored in public standings.
NFL
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
| Team | Market | Pascal Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 42.6% +125 | 38.6% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 57.4% -150 | 61.4% |
Market is the no-vig consensus of 11 sportsbooks. Your pick is recorded at that price, whichever side you choose.
College Football
Miami (OH) at Central Michigan
| Team | Market | Pascal Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Miami (OH) | 55.6% -141 | 47.3% |
| Central Michigan | 44.4% +114 | 52.7% |
Market is the no-vig consensus of 11 sportsbooks. Your pick is recorded at that price, whichever side you choose.
Scored in public
Around the ratings
NFL
Power Rankings Top 10
- 1Jacksonville Jaguars4–1rating 115.2unchanged
- 2San Francisco 49ers5–0rating 114.7up 2 places
- 3Los Angeles Rams2–3rating 111.9down 1 place
- 4Kansas City Chiefs4–0rating 109.7up 1 place
- 5Seattle Seahawks3–2rating 109.6down 2 places
- 6Buffalo Bills4–1rating 107.9up 2 places
- 7New England Patriots3–2rating 107.6up 2 places
- 8Houston Texans1–4rating 106.3up 3 places
- 9Baltimore Ravens4–1rating 106.0down 2 places
- 10Denver Broncos3–2rating 103.5unchanged
Biggest mover: Green Bay Packers, up 6 places.
Ratings through Week 5 games.
College Football
Power Rankings Top 10
- 1Notre Dame6–1rating 119.6unchanged
- 2Indiana6–1rating 119.4up 2 places
- 3Ohio State6–1rating 119.0up 3 places
- 4Georgia6–1rating 118.4down 2 places
- 5Miami6–0rating 118.2unchanged
- 6Alabama5–2rating 117.7down 3 places
- 7LSU5–2rating 116.8up 2 places
- 8Utah6–0rating 114.9down 1 place
- 9Texas4–2rating 114.7down 1 place
- 10Ole Miss5–1rating 114.0up 4 places
Biggest mover: Wake Forest, up 9 places.
Ratings through Week 7 games.
Full Week 8 rankingsCollege football ratings and closing-line record
MLB
World Series title odds
- Milwaukee Brewers22.5%market 14.8%Alive
- Los Angeles Dodgers21.4%market 27.6%Alive
- Tampa Bay Rays11.6%market 10.4%Alive
- New York Yankees9.0%market 9.5%Out
- Atlanta Braves7.0%market 5.6%Out
- Cleveland Guardians6.6%market 7.0%Alive
- Chicago Cubs5.7%market 4.8%Out
- Chicago White Sox4.5%market 2.2%Out
- Boston Red Sox4.3%market 5.3%Out
- San Diego Padres3.4%market 4.3%Out
4 of 12 playoff teams still alive.
Frozen at the end of the regular season. Market: no-vig futures, Sept. 28.
The Latest Power Rankings
The Pascal Power Rankings are our weekly read of the ratings: who is strongest, who moved, and what the ratings expect from the coming games. Each edition stays online after the week is played, so past rankings can be compared with what actually happened.
Measured Against the Closing Line
A forecast is easy to publish and harder to defend, so we compare our football ratings with the betting market's closing line on every completed game, using the same probability scores for both. The comparison is posted on each ratings page and updated through the season, whether the rating is ahead of the market or behind it. We report that record as evidence about the ratings; we do not claim an edge over the market that the results have not shown.
Research Behind the Ratings
Pascal research examines forecasting, model validation, uncertainty, and the difference between a good decision and a favorable outcome. Each study is published with its methods, data window, and limitations, including results that did not favor our models.
Build and Test Your Own Model in AnalytIQ
AnalytIQ is our modeling app for members who want to go further than reading the ratings. In AnalytIQ you can build a model of your own, test it against past seasons, follow its live performance, and keep a decision journal of what you expected and what happened. The Free plan includes one active model, and Pascal Pro adds more models and backtests.
AnalytIQ is in an invite-only beta while we learn what members find useful, confusing, or missing.
Advisory for Organizations
The methods we use to build and score the ratings apply to forecasting and decision problems well beyond sports. Through Pascal Advisory, the consulting practice of the Pascal Initiative, we help organizations build and calibrate forecasting and rating systems, validate models against out-of-sample tests, markets, and open benchmarks, and analyze decisions under uncertainty. Our case studies show that work applied to a World Series forecast, the ABS challenge research, and a fourth-down decision.
The goal is not to predict the future perfectly. It is to improve the decision made before the future is known.